Discover if your perceptions match the facts.

When it comes to retirement planning, it’s better to trust facts to inform your decisions than feelings.

This quiz is designed to gauge your perceptions about historical stock market returns compared with reality. Because thinking can influence feelings and feelings often affect behavior, fact-based thinking can support better decision-making.

This exercise is not about right or wrong, but more a journey of self-discovery.

Are you a confident investor?

You’ve likely observed the stock market throughout the years, but how accurately have you identified overall trends? It’s possible the patterns of growth and loss you perceive don’t mirror what’s actually happened.

Let’s see how closely your perceptions match reality.

  • How many of the past 86 calendar years—from 1937 through 2022—do you think large-cap stocks (companies with a market capitalization value of more than $10 billion) have been down 12% or more for the year?
  • How many times do you think large-cap stocks have experienced a small loss for the year, meaning from zero growth to a loss of 11.9%?
  • How about seeing a small gain that was between 0.1% and 11.9%?
  • And what about experiencing a big gain of 12% or more?

Enter your guesses in the appropriate boxes below and ensure the total number of years equals 86.

Over the last 86 years

Your Guess

BIG LOSS 12% or more

Enter your guess for how many years yielded a big loss (-12% or more)

Please enter a number greater than or equal to 0.

Small Loss 0% to -11.9%

Enter your guess for how many years yielded a small loss (0% to -11.9%)

Please enter a number greater than or equal to 0.

Small Gain 0.1% to 11.9%

Enter your guess for how many years yielded a small gain (0.1% to 11.9%)

Please enter a number greater than or equal to 0.

BIG GAIN 12% or more

Enter your guess for how many years yielded a big gain (12% or more)

Please enter a number greater than or equal to 0.

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